Airfare Is Rising Fast. If You Have SkyMiles, It May Be Time to Use Them

Airline tickets are getting noticeably more expensive again, and this time the data backs up what travelers are seeing when they search for flights.

If you have a large balance of Delta SkyMiles and have been waiting for the perfect redemption, I think it is worth reconsidering that strategy. You do not need to empty your account. But if you already know you are going to travel over the next several months, there is a good argument for using miles to get those trips booked now.

The risk of waiting has increased.

Quick Summary

• U.S. airline fares were 22.4% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Overall consumer prices rose just 3.7% during the same period, meaning airfare inflation is running far ahead of general inflation.
• Delta reported 15% growth in passenger revenue in the third quarter, despite essentially flat capacity.
• Delta’s domestic passenger yield increased 15% year over year in Q3.
• Delta expects December-quarter revenue to rise approximately 20%, while seats increase less than 2%.
• Higher fuel costs are adding another source of pressure. Delta says it expects to absorb roughly $6 billion of additional fuel expense in 2026.
• If you already have SkyMiles and know you will travel, locking in an award ticket today can reduce your exposure to another round of fare increases.
• This does not mean every award ticket is a good redemption. Always compare the miles required with the cash price.

📊 At a Glance

✈️ Medallion Mafia Tip

If there is a trip you know you are going to take, search both the cash fare and the SkyMiles fare now. The goal is not to use miles simply because prices are rising. The goal is to use miles when they protect you from paying an increasingly expensive cash fare at a reasonable redemption value.

Table of Contents

1. Airfare Is Actually Rising
2. What Delta’s Numbers Tell Us
3. Why Prices Could Remain Elevated
4. Why Miles Become More Useful When Cash Fares Rise
5. The Advantage of Booking Award Travel Early
6. When You Should Still Pay Cash
7. My Strategy for SkyMiles Right Now
8. Key Takeaways
9. Final Verdict

Airfare Is Actually Rising

For much of the past few years, airline pricing has been noisy.

Fares would spike around holidays, drop during slower periods and vary dramatically depending on the route. It was difficult to make a blanket statement that airfare was simply “going up.”

The current data looks different.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the airline fare index increased 22.4% between September 2025 and September 2026. Fares also increased another 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September alone.

Put that in perspective.

Overall U.S. inflation during the same 12-month period was 3.7%.

Airline tickets are not getting slightly more expensive. They are currently rising several times faster than the overall cost of living.

Government airfare data also gives a sense of what travelers are paying from major airports. In Q2 2026, the average domestic itinerary fare was roughly $404 from LaGuardia, $489 from Atlanta, $500 from Los Angeles and $521 from San Francisco.

Compared with Q1, those average fares were up roughly 7% at LaGuardia, 9% at Los Angeles and 9% at San Francisco. Some of that movement is seasonal, so I would not interpret the quarterly comparison as a forecast. But it reinforces what the broader inflation data is already showing.

Airfare has moved higher.

⚠️ Watch Out

None of this means every flight booked today will be more expensive tomorrow. Airlines constantly adjust prices, and individual routes can get cheaper. The takeaway is about the broader pricing environment, not a guarantee about a specific ticket.

Delta’s Own Numbers Are Even More Interesting

If you are a Delta traveler, the company’s latest earnings report may be more useful than the national inflation data.

In the third quarter of 2026, Delta generated approximately $15.5 billion of passenger revenue, up 15% from the prior year.

But Delta’s capacity was essentially unchanged.

That distinction matters.

Delta did not generate 15% more passenger revenue because it suddenly offered 15% more seats. Its passenger yield increased 14% overall, while domestic yield increased 15%. Domestic unit revenue increased 16%.

In simple terms, Delta is collecting considerably more revenue from roughly the same amount of flying.

And the trend may not be finished.

For the December quarter, Delta said it expects revenue to increase approximately 20% year over year, while total seats grow by less than 2%. Delta also specifically expects a reduction in Main Cabin seats.

That is not particularly encouraging if you are hoping a wave of additional capacity will suddenly push fares lower.

Delta Q3 2026

Those numbers are one of the main reasons I would be less comfortable sitting on a large SkyMiles balance while waiting for the perfect opportunity.

Why Ticket Prices Could Stay Elevated

There are two major forces working against cheaper fares right now.

The first is demand.

Delta continues to describe travel demand as strong. Its September-quarter revenue reached a record level, and the airline says momentum is continuing into the end of the year.

The second is cost.

Delta says it expects to absorb roughly $6 billion of additional fuel costs during 2026.

Airlines cannot automatically pass every dollar of increased fuel expense to passengers. Competition still matters. Demand still matters. And if consumers eventually refuse to pay higher prices, fares can come down.

But strong demand, higher costs and constrained capacity are not the combination I would choose if I were betting on significantly cheaper tickets.

💰 Money Saver

Do not focus only on the mileage price. Search nearby dates and alternate airports. Moving a trip by one day can sometimes save far more SkyMiles than waiting another month and hoping the same flight becomes cheaper.

Why Miles Become More Valuable When Cash Fares Rise

This is where SkyMiles become interesting.

Miles do not have a fixed value. Delta’s award pricing changes frequently and generally moves with demand. Delta itself advises members to check award prices regularly and notes that the lowest award prices are often available at least 30 days before domestic travel and 60 days before international travel.

So this is not a loophole where a $600 flight will always remain 25,000 miles while the cash price increases.

It will not.

But having a large mileage balance gives you another currency with which to buy the trip.

Imagine a flight currently costs:

$500 cash or 40,000 SkyMiles + $11.20

That gives you roughly 1.22 cents per mile in value.

If you were planning to take that flight anyway and have 200,000 miles sitting in your account, I would strongly consider using the miles.

Why?

Because waiting has two potential outcomes.

Scenario 1: The fare drops

Perhaps the flight eventually falls to $400 or the award price falls to 32,000 miles.

Great. You may be able to reprice or cancel an eligible award ticket and book the cheaper option.

Scenario 2: The fare rises

The flight could instead move from $500 to $650.

The mileage requirement might move higher as well.

At that point, waiting accomplished nothing except making the trip more expensive.

That asymmetry is why I increasingly like booking trips earlier when the redemption is already reasonable.

✈️ Medallion Mafia Tip

Think of an award booking as both a redemption and a hedge. You are converting a variable future travel cost into a known number of miles today.

Award Tickets Give You Useful Flexibility

Another reason this strategy works particularly well with SkyMiles is Delta’s current award-ticket flexibility.

Delta currently lists no award ticket redeposit or reissue fee for SkyMiles members. Changes to eligible award tickets are generally permitted, although Basic experiences have additional restrictions. If you change to another flight, you pay the mileage difference when applicable.

That creates a useful strategy:

Book first. Keep checking.

If an eligible award itinerary costs 45,000 SkyMiles today and you are comfortable with that price, booking it removes the risk that it costs 60,000 miles next month.

If you later find a better eligible redemption, you may be able to change or cancel and rebook under Delta’s applicable rules.

Always confirm the current rules for your specific ticket before booking, particularly for Basic fares and partner awards.

🛫 Best For

This strategy makes the most sense for travelers who:

• Already know their travel dates
• Have a substantial SkyMiles balance
• Are looking at expensive cash fares
• Are traveling around holidays or high-demand periods
• Have found an award price they consider reasonable
• Value conserving cash more than maximizing every fraction of a cent per mile

When You Should Still Pay Cash

Rising airfare does not mean you should suddenly use SkyMiles for everything.

There are plenty of situations where I would still pay cash.

Suppose a flight costs:

$180 cash or 22,000 miles

That is only about 0.77 cents per mile before considering taxes.

I would generally rather save my SkyMiles.

Now imagine:

$650 cash or 42,000 miles

That is approximately 1.52 cents per mile.

That gets much more interesting.

The calculation does not need to become an obsession.

Miles exist to pay for travel.

Saving 300,000 SkyMiles indefinitely because you are waiting for an incredible redemption does not accomplish much if the trips you actually want to take keep getting more expensive.

My SkyMiles Strategy Right Now

I would not recommend draining your SkyMiles account simply because airfare increased 22% over the last year.

But I would change how aggressively I wait.

If I know I am taking a trip and I see a good SkyMiles redemption today, I am increasingly inclined to book it.

My process is simple:

1. Find the exact flight I would actually want to take.
2. Check the cash price.
3. Check the SkyMiles price.
4. Calculate roughly how much value I am getting per mile.
5. If the redemption is reasonable, book it.
6. Continue checking the fare periodically.
7. If an eligible award price drops, investigate repricing or rebooking.

The important change is Step 5.

In a softer airfare environment, waiting for a better deal can make sense.

When fares are rising more than 20% year over year, Delta is reporting double-digit yield growth, capacity is barely growing and fuel costs are elevated, I would be much less inclined to gamble on a major decline.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. airline fares increased 22.4% year over year through September 2026.
• Delta’s domestic unit revenue increased 16% in Q3 while domestic capacity was essentially flat.
• Delta expects approximately 20% revenue growth in Q4 while increasing seats by less than 2%.
• Higher fuel expenses are adding additional cost pressure.
• SkyMiles can help insulate travelers from increasingly expensive cash fares.
• Do not redeem miles blindly. Compare the cash price against the award price.
• If you already know you will travel and find a reasonable redemption, there is increasingly little reason to wait indefinitely.

Final Verdict

I have historically been comfortable holding SkyMiles for future travel. Miles do not expire, and there is always the temptation to wait for a better redemption.

Right now, I think the balance has shifted somewhat.

Airfare is rising quickly. Delta’s own financial results show stronger pricing, limited capacity growth and healthy demand. At the same time, the airline is dealing with materially higher fuel costs.

Nobody knows where airfare will be six months from now. Prices can absolutely fall.

But if you already know you are traveling, have SkyMiles available and see a redemption that makes financial sense, I would rather lock in the trip today than hold out for perfection.

Miles are meant to be used.

And in a rising airfare environment, they may be more useful than ever.